Swine flu cases increase in Europe

Swine flu cases increase in Europe
(01:09) Report Reuters Video

Apr 29 - Germany and Austria confirm their first three cases of swine flu, as the virus arrives in the heart of continental Europe.
The Netherlands had it's first confirmed case of swine flu.
WHO raises alarm level to 5.
In the Netherlands the swine flu is called Mexican Flu (Mexicaanse Griep). In the U.S. it is also callled AH1N1 flu.

Outbreak Like Mexican Swine Flu Predicted 14 Months Ago

Outbreak Like Mexican Swine Flu Predicted 14 Months Ago
(Source By Robin Lloyd, LiveScience Senior Editor)
posted: 27 April 2009 04:12 pm ET

A team of scientists predicted more than a year ago that Mexico and other tropical locales were emerging "hotspots" for so-called zoonotic diseases that jump from animals to humans, getting it right on the newly reported swine flu.
This week, the scientists are analyzing the patterns of the new swine flu virus's spread and trying to predict its next moves. The researchers "should have preliminary findings by the weekend," team leader Peter Daszak of the Wildlife Trust told LiveScience.
Daszak and his colleagues cautioned in February 2008 that infectious disease-fighting resources are not effectively deployed around the globe and that the U.S. government has not always accurately investigated how flu strains will arrive here.

Hot spots
The tropics prediction came from an analysis of 335 "disease events" involving emerging infectious diseases between 1940 and 2004 — examples include Ebola, HIV, yellow fever and SARS. The analysis showed that such events peaked in the 1980s and that the threat of these diseases to global health is increasing.
The events, mostly caused by zoonotic diseases, were found to be correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors.
That allowed the scientists to make a predictive map of where emerging diseases are most likely to emerge — pointing to Latin America, tropical Africa and Asia. The map also pointed up that global resources to fight disease emergence are misguided — focusing on richer, developed countries of Europe, North America, parts of Asia and Australia, rather than in developing countries. The report was published in the Feb. 21, 2008, issue of the journal Nature. Read Article...
http://www.livescience.com/health/090427-flu-prediction.html

The disease event prediction map is like an earthquake risk map, Daszak said. "If we live in one of these 'hotspots,' we need to protect ourselves, and our trading and traveling partners from the risk of new diseases," he said.

Deadly new flu virus in US and Mexico may go pandemic

Deadly new flu virus in US and Mexico may go pandemic

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17025-deadly-new-flu-virus-in-us-and-mexico-may-go-pandemic.html

A novel flu virus has struck hundreds of people in Mexico, and at least 18 have died. It has also infected 17 people in the US, and appears able to spread readily from human to human. The World Health Organization is calling an emergency meeting to decide whether to declare the possible onset of a flu pandemic.
Ironically, after years of concern about H5N1 bird flu, the new flu causing concern is a pig virus, of a family known as H1N1.
Flu viruses are named after the two main proteins on their surfaces, abbreviated H and N. They are also differentiated by what animal they usually infect. The H in the new virus comes from pigs, but some of its other genes come from bird and human flu viruses, a mixture that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention calls "very unusual". http://www.cdc.gov/
On Wednesday, the CDC announced that routine surveillance had uncovered mild flu cases during late March and April, caused by a novel swine flu virus. Those affected, aged 9 to 54, live in and around San Diego, California, and San Antonio, Texas, near the Mexican border. None was severe. Symptoms were normal for flu, with more nausea and diarrhoea than usual.
Mongrelised mix
On Thursday, Canadian public health officials warned Canadians travelling to Mexico of clusters of severe flu-like illness there. Then on Friday the WHO in Geneva said in a statement there have been around 900 suspected cases of swine flu in Mexico City and two other regions of Mexico, with around 60 suspected deaths. Of those, 18 have been confirmed as H1N1 swine flu, says the WHO, and tests so far have shown that 12 of those are "genetically identical" to the California virus.

Swine influenza frequently asked questions, Download PDF (WHO)
http://www.who.int/csr/swine_flu/swineflu_qanda_20090425.pdf

Science (New York Times Permalink)
Dot Earth: Contagion on a Small Planet
By By Andrew C. Revkin Published: April 26, 2009
A spreading outbreak of swine flu is showing the global reach of disease on a small planet.

World gov'ts race to contain swine flu outbreak
US declares health emergency as world officials race to contain worrisome swine flu, panic
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/World-govts-race-to-contain-apf-15036683.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Governments are racing to find and contain pockets of swine flu around the globe, seeking to stem both the threat of a pandemic and public panic.
"We're preparing in an environment where we really don't know ultimately what the size or seriousness of this outbreak is going to be," U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said Sunday.
In Mexico, the outbreak's epicenter, soldiers handed out 6 million face masks to help stop the spread of the novel virus that is suspected in up to 103 deaths. Most other countries are reporting only mild cases so far, with most of the sick already recovering. Cases have been confirmed in Canada -- six -- and the U.S. -- 20 -- and other countries from Spain to New Zealand were investigating whether other people with flulike symptoms really have this new swine flu or something else.
There is not a global pandemic yet, but waiting until scientists know if the new virus is going to spread rapidly and easily would be too late.
The U.S. declared the health emergency amid confusion about whether new numbers really mean ongoing infections -- or just that health officials had missed something simmering for weeks or months. But the move allows the government to ship roughly 12 million doses of flu-fighting medications from a federal stockpile to states in case they eventually need them.

Swine flu outcome 'uncertain' 3:50
The director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy says the swine flu virus outcome is uncertain.