Saturday, June 20, 2009

Where Housing Will Be in 2012

Where Housing Will Be in 2012

(Source Yahoo Finance, Business Week)
Home prices are likely to fall for the next year, then stabilize, with a rebound in 2012 as the overall economy takes off again
Americans have not seen a boring housing market since the last millennium. You know -- the average, ordinary kind of market where supply just about matches demand, prices are steady, and real estate ceases to be a topic of daily conversation. Instead, we've had six years of upside craziness followed by three years of downside terror. Now we're in a tug-of-war between those who think we've finally found a bottom and those who are convinced that the overhang of unsold homes is going to push prices considerably lower.

By 2012 we may finally get back to blissful boredom. With any luck, three years should be long enough for the U.S. economy to recover and for the nation's housing inventory to shrink to more normal levels. At that point, housing will return to its old ways, with prices governed not by national mood swings and global credit crises but by local issues ranging from zoning to immigration to job growth
Prices? While they're likely to keep falling a while longer under the weight of foreclosures, the market is definitely closer to the bottom than the top. "We expect prices to drop for another year and then stabilize before starting to rise with incomes," says Standard & Poor's Chief Economist David Wyss. Moody's predicts the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, maintained by data specialist Fiserv, will fall about 16% this year before regaining ground. Based on the National Association of Realtors national median home price of $180,000 for the fourth quarter of 2008, that would mean a median of $152,000 at the end of 2009 and then a rebound to $179,000 by the end of 2012.

All Real Estate Is Local

Of course, the national median price is an artificial construct, since there is no such place as National Median, U.S.A. That's why the following pages provide up-close looks at seven markets: Omaha; Seattle; Saratoga Springs, N.Y.; Salt Lake City; Nashville; Austin, Tex.; and Merced, Calif. Each illustrates a different trend that will have a big impact on sales and prices across the U.S. Read Article...
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1 comment:

Nashville Homes said...

Simply put, in 2012 we'll be on the way back up to a 2018 spike!